Ever since the early wide-scale adoption of the world-wide web back in the late 90s, people have been predicting that electronic delivery of books would replace paper. The early talk of revolution was not un-justified, but the most credulous timelines were maybe a bit naive. It will have taken almost twenty years for paper book sales to be surpassed by e-books:
http://www.bbc.com/n...t-arts-27694650
I wonder if we are in a similar position now with electric motorcycles. They seem likely to dominate the future, but is that a near future or a far future?
I'll guess 20 - 30 years. Because who really knows.
Is that near or far? :unsure:
Don't forget, times fun when you're having flies. :cool:
The somewhat recent availability of cheap and small e-readers (tablets, phones) will be the tipping point for e-books to overtake books. Before that, the public had to sit at a computer screen or lug around a large, heavy laptop. Even so that was enough to kill magazines and newsprint. Anyway......
I have been an EV proponent :cheerleader: ever since I got my first hybrid and am now currently on my third PHEV (plug-in hybrid electric vehicle); a CMax Energi. Current battery tech is limited by three things: weight, costs, and charge rate. Change one for the better and the other two go in the opposite direction. :wacko: Until we see some more breakthroughs and a large increase in public charging infrastructure, change will be slow. Now E-bikes do excel in some racing already: moto-cross, pikes peak, circle track, etc., where range is not an issue.
Another new tech is fuel cells but they are big, heavy and work better at constant throttle/load. There big advantage is a relatively quick refill compare to battery charging.
Most folks don't like change so I'd say it's going to take a good while. It will also depend GREATLY on any possible government regulations (CARB, CAFE, etc).
If you haven't see "Charge" about EV's on the Isle of Mann, it's fascinating and a real good watch. Here's the trailer but the doc can be found on netflix: [video: https://youtube.com/embed/rogV80QfLYQ?html5=1&fs=1] Highly recommended. :fing02:
Leather clad maniacs become a force for global good. :laughing6-hehe:
Until someone can drastically increase range and drastically decrease charge times, they will remain a novelty - cars and bikes alike! I live in an area where cars like Teslas and Nissan Leafs are almost as common as F-150s but I can't see buying a car that only has a 150-ish mile range limitation. I need something that has 4X4, a decent tow rating, seats 4 with long range comfort, the power to crest multiple mountain passes in one trip, and something I can hop in and bust out a 1000+ mile day on a few rare occasions. I can't/won't pay premium electric vehicle prices (bikes or cars) and have to find the one "gas station" in backwoods America that has an electric port and then wait two hours every time I "fill up". Finding a regular gas station for fuel is challenging enough as it stands. Trying to find one with electricity any time soon is not going to happen. Some people have suggested battery swaps similar to propane fuel tanks swaps but that seems like an expensive trail to follow. One of our neighbors has an older Toyota Prius and recently had to replace the battery to the tune of $3800. Add that onto the price of the car plus the fuel that it uses and operating it is way more expensive than a common Civic, Corolla, or similar. I'm certain bike batteries will need replacing after a certain number of charging cycles for a much higher prices than common a common bike battery as well.
Electric or electric assist vehicles aren't the savior they are made out to be and I don't even buy into "Clean Electric Energy" for anything. Most of our electricity comes from operating enormous coal mines, loading it onto rail cars and chugging it half way across the country, and then BURNING it in a power plant so you can have "clean" energy. Then you get to "properly dispose of" used batteries and we all know how that goes. 125 car - 150 car coal trains have come through my home town here in Colorado ALL DAY - EVERY DAY since I was a little kid, transporting coal from Wyoming and Colorado to New Mexico and Texas. I don't know how the mines haven't thrown off the axis of the earth after moving that much material for 40+ years. There must be one hell of a hole somewhere!
I say if you want to help save the world, buy a reliable econo-box that gets good MPG and lasts forever and call it a day. Electro-gadgetry is not the answer.
Mailman out!
Ooops, not out yet. We actually DID have a solar panel company come out to give us an estimate on supplementing our home energy with solar power. The guy wasn't here five minutes before he said "Well, you're going to have to cut down all of your trees that shade your home so the sun can get to the panels on your roof". .....Uh - NO SIR! Those trees keep our home shaded in the summer and help keep our air conditioner from running all day long. Besides, we kinda like our trees around here. So we had the dilemma of offending the tree huggers and cutting down beautiful trees that keep our home cool to save on energy that we DO use by powering up with solar assist to cool a hotter house. The trees STAY and the solar man GOES!
Having ridden an electric MC (the BMW) I cannot see me change anytime soon.
Yes, the linear power delivery is impressive, but fails to give me a warm wiener like my V4's do... :goofy:
Took my son to the Marvel Universe arena show and all but two of the motorcycles used for stunts looked like Zero electric SuperMotos... endos, wheelies, jumps, powerslides... the riders were having a blast on those things. They must have had 8 electric bikes. The only two gas powered bikes were trials bikes they used for serious climbs, jumps, and close quarters maneuvers at height.
Great show BTW, we had a blast!
There definitely coming and maybe be a hybrid . Telsa got feed up with the battery producer not being able to deliver so he is building his own battery factory .
The problem is, battery tech is pretty mature, and cutting edge solutions are quite a way from commercialization. Part of this is because you have a hell of a dangerous object in a fully charged battery pack, and insufficient infrastructure.
Current to near-future tech isn't enoug without some sort of "hot swappable" infrastructure and standardized battery pack. In other words, pull up to the "charge station" and swap the dead battery for a freshly charged one. This would require all manufacturers to agree on a single standard interface for the packs, as well as a massive infrastructure to rival gasoline's.
Not happening in the near future- 50-100 years perhaps, especially with cheap oil.
(And what the hell happened to the propaganda we were taught as 1970's elementary school children, predicting- no, PROCLAIMING that we would run out of oil in the early 2000's?? Did that get replaced by manmade climate change?)