I think there are five big issues that are responsible for the past decade being perennially disappointing VFR-wise, a couple of which have already been mentioned:
1. The road bike industry in the U.S. is now fully mature and saturated and has been since somewhere around 2000 or thereabouts. By this I mean:
a. the pace of innovation has slowed dramatically since the 70s and 80s
b. the ratio of road-ready-motorcycles to people-who-want-motorcycles is also historically high
(Compare the innovation distance between a 1986 VFR 750 and a ten-year-old 1976 Honda CB750 relative to the much smaller distance between a 2015 VFR 800 and a ten-year-old 2005 VFR 800)
2. Large displacement road motorcycling skews old demographically. It is much more popular among 50 year-olds than it is among 20 year-olds. This means the big manufacturers are sorting out how they will compete for a profitable slice of a soon-to-be-shinking pie. That limits R&D budgets.
3. The Great Recession of 2008 was brutal and the accumulated red ink is probably still a drag on the industry
4. The sport-touring segment in particular has been shrinking while, for instance, the adventure segment has been much more popular
5. Honda made a good-sized gamble on the VFR 1200 and that gamble was almost certainly a very expensive market-forecasting error. I think Honda drew some bad cards here, with the the recession and the industry shift toward adventure bikes both stomping on the debut of the 1200. I'm not commenting on the desirability of the machine, which some folks here really love, no doubt with good reason. I'm just saying that all indications are that Honda likely took a substantial write-down on the project ledger and that has consequences for their ability and willingness to take another gamble on another re-boot of the VFR line.
These trends reinforce each other. Since aggregate demand is no longer growing, but the supply of used motorcycles is growing, and the bikes are not substantially different from year-to-year, the backlog of high-quality used bikes is a real sap on demand for new machines. The primary competitor of a $15K new VFR 1000 might not be a $14K new Ninja 1000 but rather an $8K 2014 VFR 800. Sure, a lot of guys would drop an additional $7K to get the latest greatest, but a lot of other guys would not. Especially frugal guys in their 50s who already own a great bike. That constrains how many units Honda might move and how much they can charge for them, both of which shrink potential R&D budgets relative to those go-go days when we were all younger and the economic and demographic winds were at Honda's back rather than in their face.
I think the used-bike dynamic is an under-rated part of why the adventure segment has seemed so popular relative to sport-touring this past decade. If you like sport-touring bikes, the classifieds are filled with fantastic, low-mileage bikes that are ten, fifteen, or even twenty years old. How different is the 2020 FJR from the 2005? But that isn't the case for the Multistradas, S1000XRs, and Africa Twins.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0O8Q0x38mI
This is a great time to be a motorcyclist! The selection of new and used bikes is simply extraordinary in terms of both quality and value. And it's an okay (probably not 'great') time to be a mature motorcycle manufacturer. But 2020 is maybe not a good time to be pining for an all-new VFR-based sport-tourer from Honda. Maybe 2023!